With conflicting evidence, a reasoning system derives uncertain conclusions. If the system is open to new evidence, it faces additionally a higher-order uncertainty, because the first-order uncertainty evaluations are uncertain themselves --- they can be changed by future evidence. A new measurement, confidence, is introduced for this higher-order uncertainty. It is defined in terms of the amount of available evidence, and interpreted and processed as the relative stability of the first-order uncertainty evaluation. Its relation with other approaches of ``reasoning with uncertainty'' is also discussed.
Keywords. confidence, evidence, frequency interval, revision, inference, deduction, induction, abduction.
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| Pei Wang | peiwang@mindspring.com |
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