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SECOND INTERNATIONAL
SYMPOSIUM ON

IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

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Cornell University

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Ithaca, NY, USA

26 - 29 June 2001

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ELECTRONIC PROCEEDINGS

# Constructing coherent models of conditional and unconditional upper probabilities

### Abstract

We investigate the coherence of a possibilistic system modelled
by the joint possibility distribution function of a finite sequence
of linearly ordered possibilistic variables together with the
conditional possibility distribution function of any variable
in this sequence, given the values assumed by all preceding
variables. To ensure the coherence of this model it is necessary
and sufficient that the conditional possibilities are intermediate
between those calculated from the joint possibility distribution
function by Dempster's rule and the natural extension rule. We
then show how a coherent model of conditional and unconditional
upper probabilities can be constructed, using a given coherent
model and a finitely additive probability. The method used to
construct this model is to form convex combinations of the
finitely additive probability and the upper probabilities
belonging to the given model.

** Keywords. ** Coherence, natural extension rule, Dempster's conditioning rule, possibility measure, upper probability

** Format. **Postscript

**Paper Download **

The paper is availabe in the following sites:

** Authors addresses: **

Hugo Janssen

Laurierstraat 42

9052 Zwijnaarde

Belgium

** E-mail addresses: **

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