A practical way of eliciting convex sets of probability measures on a real continuous variable is introduced, one which mathematically defines vagueness and allows for its explicit treatment when it emerges from the activity of making inferences about a parameter based on available evidence through expert opinion. In the setup of the protocol, new indexes are introduced concerning the detailing of the questionnaire.
Keywords. elicitation, uncertainty, prior knowledge, prior distribution, expert opinion, convex sets of probability measures, vagueness
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Authors addresses:
Gertrudes Nadler Lins
Rua Engenheiro Clovis de Castro, 250, Apto 2401, Parnamirim
52060-180 Recife, PE, Brazil
Fernando Campello de Souza
Rua Neto de Mendonca, 121, Apto. 2301, Tamarineira
52050-100 Recife, Pernambuco
Brasil
E-mail addresses:
| Gertrudes Nadler Lins | gertie@uol.com.br |
| Fernando Campello de Souza | fmcs@elogica.com.br |